Photovoltaics, it shouldn't be worse in 2024


2024-03-07

In 2023, the Chinese PV market created a myth of 216.9 GW of new installations, with a growth rate of more than 140%, a growth of more than half of the global new installations. But not only China's new installations in the rapid growth, the world's top three markets in the U.S. new installations growth of more than 50%, Europe's new installations growth of nearly 50%, the global new installations growth is expected to reach 70%.

In 2023, the Chinese PV market created a myth of 216.9 GW of new installations, with a growth rate of more than 140%, a growth of more than half of the global new installations.
But not only China's new installations in the rapid growth, the world's top three markets in the U.S. new installations growth of more than 50%, Europe's new installations growth of nearly 50%, the global new installations growth is expected to reach 70%.

At the end of 2023, the future of photovoltaic is not optimistic about an important reason is: a high degree of involution, overcapacity, price decline, technology iteration, etc. become the key words of the photovoltaic industry in 2023. So for the year 2024 that has come, will it be better than 2023?

At the beginning of 2024, at the energy work conference held by the National Energy Board, it was clearly proposed that in 2024 China will add about 200 GW of PV and wind power installed. According to the general conservative style of the past and the aggressive actions of the PV industry, 2024 will probably be another year of record highs.

Also in January, the U.S. Energy Department proposed that the new power sector PV installation in 2024 is planned to be 36.4 GW. If you add in the other commercial and industrial PV planned by the DOE, as well as household PV not included in the DOE's statistics, etc., the U.S. is expected to have around 54 GW of new PV installed in 2024, up another 2/3 from 2023.

India in 2023 because of ALMM factual rules caused a lot of PV project delays, also caused by the annual new PV installed capacity is not as good as the previous year. 2023 Q4 and January this year, India's New and Renewable Energy Agency issued a major good, ALMM new rules delayed to April 1, 2024, the implementation of new regulations, before that has been constructed and is under construction projects, have been purchased PV modules are not affected by the new rules. The new regulations will not affect the projects that have been constructed and are under construction before then. Industry analysis, this move allows the accumulation of photovoltaic projects in 2024 Q1 concentrated outbreak, 2024 India will again become the world's third largest PV installed country.

In the communiqué of the just-concluded Global Energy Ministers Meeting held by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the key global goals were again proposed to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and limit temperature rise to 1.5°C. The PV industry is expected to be the largest contributor to this goal. Photovoltaics will be the biggest contributor to this target.
It shouldn't get any worse in 2024

Li Zhenguo said in the Dialogue - Starting the Year Saying column, "In recent years, carbon neutrality has gradually become a new round of international political consensus, and countries have accelerated the process of carbon neutrality. Against this background, the PV market is developing in excess of expectations and speed, which has brought about a stage of overcapacity."

But Li Zhenguo believes that, despite the industry's new round of reshuffle and the stage of survival of the fittest is about to begin, but from the level of technological development, the PV industry is getting better; standing in the stage of the development cycle, the PV industry should be in the bottom of the logic.