The PV inflection point may be in 2025!
2024-01-24
After the resumption of work in 2024, the photovoltaic industry is neither hot and hot, nor is the dragon flying. There are some positive signals in the industry, such as photovoltaic stocks after "waist chop", "knee chop", "ankle chop" after a mild rebound, the upstream silicon link briefly stabilized, silicon wafer, component prices Brewing prices, etc., and shrouded in the industry over the big shuffle haze has not been eliminated in the slightest.
After the resumption of work in 2024, the photovoltaic industry is neither hot and hot, nor is the dragon flying. There are some positive signals in the industry, such as photovoltaic stocks after "waist chop", "knee chop", "ankle chop" after a mild rebound, the upstream silicon link briefly stabilized, silicon wafer, component prices Brewing prices, etc., and shrouded in the industry over the big shuffle haze has not been eliminated in the slightest.
Silicon wafer, module price increases are seen by the industry as "tentative", "strategic" rise, not a V-shaped reversal. Photovoltaic manufacturers start rate is not as good as the previous year, the first-line manufacturers of the start rate of about 50%, two, three manufacturers start rate of 20% -30%, which on the one hand, with the first quarter is the traditional off-season, the employees returned to their hometowns were not all on the job, but also with the whole industry chain prices are now declining, the start of the deep-rooted factors of the loss.
More to the market a layer of shadow is that the domestic and overseas market situation is not optimistic. Global inverse manufacturers SolarEdge Q4 earnings report revenue fell short of expectations, adjusted loss per share of $ 0.92. Earlier, Hanwha Qcells closed its 3.5GW module plant in South Korea.
As for the domestic market, following the news of layoffs by a leading manufacturer in November 2023, the news of significant layoffs by a leading PV manufacturer has recently broken out. Behind this rumor of layoffs, more reflecting the industry situation is still very serious.
The reason why the leading manufacturers do so, nothing more than to reserve more cash, in order to survive the industry may be slightly long winter. Although, from the second half of 2023, the photovoltaic industry began to step into the adjustment, but far from the inflection point has arrived at the moment.
From the cycle, photovoltaic module is in September 2023 fell below 1 yuan / watt cost line, into the situation of industry-wide losses. 2023 PV installed capacity unprecedented outbreak, to a certain extent, or for the relevant manufacturers to bring a good performance growth.